Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermín singled to center, Walker scored, Winn to third.6–5
- 8Winn doubled to right, Burleson scored, Walker to third.6–4
- 8Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored.6–3
- 8Sosa doubled to center, Crawford scored and Marsh scored.6–2
- 7Schwarber doubled to center, Stubbs scored.4–2
- 6Burleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored and Herrera scored.3–2
- 5Harper grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Schwarber scored, Stott out at second.3–0
- 2Sosa singled to left, Hill scored.2–0
- 2Marsh scored on error, Hill safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Dobbins, Hill safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -113 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.7%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −31 | +3 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 1.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–26 | Road vs home | 30–3324th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–68 | 64–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–50 | 13–28 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–60–7 | 46–66–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 11–7 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.