Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera singled to center, Wetherholt scored.4–7
- 8Wetherholt doubled to center, Church scored on error and Winn scored on error, Wetherholt safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Carrigg.4–6
- 8Goodman homered to left (394 feet).4–4
- 6B. Sullivan homered to right center (384 feet), Castro scored.3–4
- 5Burleson homered to right center (441 feet).1–4
- 3Winn doubled to center, Burleson scored.1–3
- 3Crooks hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.1–2
- 1Walker singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to second.1–1
- 1Goodman singled to right, McCarthy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML COL +147 / STL -158
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- STL: Elo 62.3%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -151
- COL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −10 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +88 Elo | STL 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 3019–39 | Road vs home | 29–3325th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 30th of 301415 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–56 | 63–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 56–51 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 55–58–4 | 45–66–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 11–10 STL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.