Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting3-4
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Johnston grounded out to second, Rumfield scored, Castro to third.2–3
- 3Herrera homered to left (379 feet).1–3
- 2Torres hit sacrifice fly to left, Winn scored.1–2
- 2Church hit sacrifice fly to center, Crooks scored, Winn to third.1–1
- 2Johnston grounded out to shortstop, Rumfield scored, Castro to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 62%
- ML COL +158 / STL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- STL: Elo 65.2%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -162
- COL +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +109 Elo | STL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–38 | Road vs home | 28–3225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 30th of 301414 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–56 | 63–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 54–51 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 54–57–4 | 44–65–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–9 STL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.