Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Church singled to right, Fermín scored.8–6
- 9Karros hit sacrifice fly to left, McCarthy scored.8–5
- 8Walker homered to left center (432 feet).7–5
- 6Herrera singled to left, Pereira scored.7–4
- 6McCarthy homered to center (417 feet), Tovar scored.7–3
- 5Winn hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored.5–3
- 5Rumfield singled to left, Carrigg scored.5–2
- 3Goodman singled to right, Carrigg scored.4–2
- 3Carrigg doubled to center, Karros scored and McCarthy scored.3–2
- 1Fermín doubled to left, Burleson scored and Herrera scored.1–2
- 1McCarthy homered to right center (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML COL +143 / STL -154
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- STL: Elo 63.6%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -147
- COL +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −7 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +97 Elo | STL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–39 | Road vs home | 29–3223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 30th of 301413 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–56 | 63–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 12–27 |
| Underdog | 55–51 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 54–58–4 | 44–66–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–10 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.