Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting2-6, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 12Hill singled to center, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second, Stott to third.6–7
- 12Stott singled to right, Arraez scored, Realmuto to second.6–6
- 12Sánchez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lukes scored, Bateman out at second. Toronto Blue Jays challenged: call on the field was upheld.6–5
- 8Giménez singled to right, Okamoto scored and Clement scored.5–5
- 8Clement doubled to left, Kirk scored, Okamoto to third.3–5
- 6Bohm singled to center, Stott scored, Bohm to second.2–5
- 5Schwarber homered to right (448 feet).2–4
- 5Bateman singled to left, Straw scored, Schneider to second.2–3
- 4Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–3
- 3Schwarber homered to left center (378 feet), Bohm scored and Crawford scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML TOR +217 / PHI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.6%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -222
- TOR +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 31–3018th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–60 | 51–67 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 37–49 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–56–4 | 51–60–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–12 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.