Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas homered to left (381 feet).7–5
- 7Dingler doubled to left, Torres scored.6–5
- 7Murakami homered to left center (393 feet), Antonacci scored.6–4
- 6C. Montgomery singled to center, Grichuk scored.4–4
- 5Romo homered to right (386 feet), Peters scored.3–4
- 3Keith homered to left (354 feet).1–4
- 3Antonacci grounded out to first, Peters scored.1–3
- 2Clark singled to right, Callahan scored.0–3
- 2Callahan tripled to right, Keith scored and McKinstry scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML CHW +105 / DET -113
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 53.5%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +24 Elo | DET 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 32–3014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–56 | 59–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 30–45 |
| Underdog | 55–32 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 69–51–2 | 54–63–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 18–29 DET in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 47.