Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4
- Rhett LowderPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peters scored on Marinaccio wild pitch, Romo to second on wild pitch by Marinaccio.0–5
- 8Peters scored on Marinaccio wild pitch, Romo to second on wild pitch by Marinaccio.0–5
- 8Romo singled to center, C. Montgomery scored, Peters to third.0–4
- 6Meidroth homered to left (360 feet), C. Montgomery scored.0–3
- 3Romo homered to right (403 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 58%
- ML CIN +132 / CHW -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CHW: Elo 52.9%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- CHW -136
- CIN +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +20 Elo | CHW 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 36–235th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–59 | 63–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 43–33 | 53–32 |
| Overs–unders | 62–54–2 | 67–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–4 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.