Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David SandlinPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Murakami homered to center (406 feet).8–2
- 6Kwan homered to right (362 feet).8–1
- 5Hedges singled to left, Hoskins scored.7–1
- 5Martínez homered to right center (422 feet), DeLauter scored, Ramírez scored and Adell scored.6–1
- 2B. Montgomery homered to center (419 feet).2–1
- 1Martínez singled to left, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored, Adell to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML CLE -135 / CHW +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.2%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -129
- CHW +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −24 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 34–214th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–59 | 61–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–41 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 55–61 | 64–48–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 27–19 CHW in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 46.