Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tim HerrinPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hagen SmithPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Genao scored, DeLauter to third.3–5
- 3C. Montgomery homered to right (391 feet), Grichuk scored and B. Montgomery scored.2–5
- 3Grichuk doubled to left, Vargas scored.2–2
- 1Murakami doubled to center, Doyle scored.2–1
- 1Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, DeLauter scored.2–0
- 1Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored on fielding error by right fielder B. Montgomery, DeLauter safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -125 / CHW +116
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.1%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -120
- CHW +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +6 Elo | CHW 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 35–224th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 16th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–60 | 62–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–42 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 52–32 |
| Overs–unders | 57–61 | 66–48–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 28–20 CHW in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.