Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Montgomery singled to left, Acuña scored.3–6
- 7Genao homered to right (362 feet).3–5
- 6Meidroth singled to right, B. Montgomery scored and Peters scored.2–5
- 6Peters doubled to center, Vargas scored and Benintendi scored, B. Montgomery to third.2–3
- 6Murakami homered to left (347 feet).2–1
- 6Hoskins homered to left (392 feet), Martínez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -123 / CHW +114
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 47.9%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -118
- CHW +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +13 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +15 Elo | CHW 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 34–224th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–59 | 61–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–41 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 51–32 |
| Overs–unders | 56–61 | 65–48–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 28–19 CHW in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 47.