Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, McLain scored.5–4
- 8Stephenson singled to right, De La Cruz scored and Toglia scored, Bleday thrown out at third.4–4
- 8De La Cruz singled to right, McLain scored, Toglia to second.2–4
- 5Suárez homered to left center (401 feet).1–4
- 4Antonacci doubled to center, Grichuk scored, Quero to third.0–4
- 4Vargas homered to left center (407 feet).0–3
- 2Quero homered to left center (378 feet).0–2
- 1Doyle homered to center (415 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 59%
- ML CIN +138 / CHW -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 56.6%, market 58.7%
- Fair odds
- CHW -142
- CIN +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +46 Elo | CHW 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 58.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 36–224th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150011th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–59 | 63–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 42–33 | 53–32 |
| Overs–unders | 61–54–2 | 66–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.