Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Ben MalgeriBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vargas homered to left center (397 feet).9–5
- 7Torres grounded out to shortstop, Clark scored.8–5
- 7Malgeri homered to left (372 feet).8–4
- 6Vargas homered to left (392 feet), Murakami scored.8–3
- 4B. Montgomery tripled to center, Vargas scored and Benintendi scored.6–3
- 4Murakami homered to right (392 feet).4–3
- 4Peters homered to right center (379 feet), Meidroth scored.3–3
- 3Valencia doubled to left, McGonigle scored.1–3
- 2Malgeri homered to left center (375 feet), Torkelson scored.1–2
- 1B. Montgomery singled to left, Antonacci scored, Murakami to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML CHW +124 / DET -134
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DET: Elo 60.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- CHW +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +9 | CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +71 Elo | DET 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3025–34 | Road vs home | 32–2812th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–56 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 30–43 |
| Underdog | 53–32 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 68–50–2 | 53–62–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–29 DET in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 45.