Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Quero singled to right, B. Montgomery scored.9–8
- 8Benintendi singled to right, Antonacci scored and Quero scored, Meidroth to third.9–7
- 6Suárez hit by pitch, Stewart scored, Stephenson to second, Bleday to third.9–5
- 5Quero singled to left, B. Montgomery scored, Doyle to second.8–5
- 4Stephenson homered to left center (393 feet), De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.8–4
- 4Stewart singled to right, Hayes scored, De La Cruz to second.5–4
- 3Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Stewart scored.4–4
- 2Grichuk doubled to right, Acuña scored and Meidroth scored.3–4
- 2Meidroth hit a ground rule double, Antonacci scored, Acuña to third.3–2
- 1Grichuk doubled to left, Meidroth scored.3–1
- 1Suárez homered to left (359 feet), Stephenson scored.3–0
- 1Stewart homered to left (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 56%
- ML CIN +125 / CHW -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 54.1%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- CHW -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +29 Elo | CHW 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 37–234th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–60 | 64–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 43–34 | 53–32 |
| Overs–unders | 62–55–2 | 67–50–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–5 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.