Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell hit sacrifice fly to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.4–6
- 8Adell homered to center (428 feet).3–6
- 7McGonigle singled to center, McKinstry scored.2–6
- 7Báez scored, McKinstry to third on caught stealing error by third baseman José Ramírez2–5
- 7Báez scored, McKinstry to third.2–5
- 7Ramírez grounded out to shortstop, Kwan scored.2–4
- 5Torres singled to center, McGonigle scored.1–4
- 5McGonigle doubled to right, Báez scored and Clark scored.1–3
- 3DeLauter homered to right center (424 feet).1–1
- 2Torkelson doubled to center, Greene scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML CLE +131 / DET -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 56.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −4 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +48 Elo | DET 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 30–2714th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 57–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–43 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–62 | 51–61–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 29–24 DET in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 53.
- Jun 13DET 1 @ CLE 3Picked DET 56%Miss
- Jun 12DET 2 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 53%Hit
- May 21CLE 3 @ DET 1Picked DET 54%Miss
- May 20CLE 3 @ DET 2Picked CLE 51%Hit
- May 19CLE 4 @ DET 3Picked CLE 59%Hit
- May 18CLE 8 @ DET 2Picked DET 59%Miss
- Oct 2DET 6 @ CLE 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Miss
- Oct 1DET 1 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Hit