Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jo AdellBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McGonigle scored on Smith wild pitch, McKinstry to second on wild pitch by Smith.6–4
- 8McGonigle scored on Smith wild pitch, McKinstry to second on wild pitch by Smith.6–4
- 7Hedges singled to right, Genao scored.6–3
- 7Genao doubled to right, Martínez scored.5–3
- 5Adell homered to left (385 feet), Ramírez scored.4–3
- 3Torres homered to left center (421 feet).2–3
- 1Torkelson doubled to center, Dingler scored and Lee scored.2–2
- 1Martínez doubled to left, DeLauter scored.2–0
- 1Adell grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Kwan scored, Ramírez out at second, DeLauter to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML CLE +116 / DET -124
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 56.4%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -120
- CLE +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −18 | CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +45 Elo | DET 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 31–2712th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–62 | 58–61 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–43 | 30–42 |
| Underdog | 39–19 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–62 | 52–61–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 29–25 DET in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 54.