Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Eduardo ValenciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benintendi singled to left, Grichuk scored, Vargas to third.4–3
- 5Torres doubled to center, Julks scored.3–3
- 4Valencia homered to left (358 feet).3–2
- 3C. Montgomery doubled to right, B. Montgomery scored and Benintendi scored.3–1
- 1Valencia singled to center, Lee scored, McGonigle to third.1–1
- 1B. Montgomery singled to right, Antonacci scored, Murakami to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML CHW +137 / DET -147
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 57.9%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -141
- CHW +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +25 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +55 Elo | DET 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 32–2914th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–56 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 30–44 |
| Underdog | 54–32 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 69–50–2 | 54–62–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 17–29 DET in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 46.