Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Crow-Armstrong homered to right (391 feet), Kelly scored.5–7
- 9Hoerner singled to center, Taylor scored, Happ to third.5–5
- 8Benintendi homered to right center (378 feet), Murakami scored.5–4
- 5Hoerner reached on infield single to third, Suzuki scored on error and Happ scored on throwing error by third baseman Vargas, Hoerner to second.3–4
- 4Grichuk homered to center (404 feet), Murakami scored and Vargas scored.3–2
- 1Suzuki homered to center (440 feet).0–2
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHW +145 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.9%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | CHW: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +77 Elo | CHC 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 36–268th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–56 | 61–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 32–50 |
| Underdog | 56–32 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 70–51–2 | 65–53–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–13 CHC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.