New York Mets at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rogers homered to center (401 feet), B. Montgomery scored.4–6
- 6C. Montgomery homered to right (399 feet).4–4
- 6Grichuk homered to left center (400 feet).4–3
- 6Vargas homered to left (405 feet), Murakami scored.4–2
- 5Bichette homered to left (345 feet).4–0
- 4Baty doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored and Young scored.3–0
- 2Semien singled to left, Benge scored, Baty to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML NYM +116 / CHW -124
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 54.6%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -120
- NYM +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +32 Elo | CHW 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 37–255th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–68 | 69–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–42 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 58–34 |
| Overs–unders | 56–61–11 | 71–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–2 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.