San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-3
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Sheets scored.1–2
- 1Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.0–2
- 1Bichette singled to right, Ewing scored, Lindor to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML SD +110 / NYM -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 28–3427th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–61 | 59–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–37 | 27–41 |
| Underdog | 45–24 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 55–67–3 | 56–58–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–12 NYM in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.