San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth homered to right center (403 feet).5–0
- 8Bowen homered to right (366 feet).4–0
- 4Bogaerts singled to center, Merrill scored.3–0
- 2Sheets homered to right (367 feet).2–0
- 2Rengifo homered to center (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML SD -105 / CLE -103
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SD: Elo 53.2%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −6 | SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 29–3224th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–61 | 60–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–37 | 20–45 |
| Underdog | 44–24 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 55–66–3 | 60–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–3 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.