Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill homered to center (431 feet), France scored.2–3
- 2France homered to left (369 feet).2–1
- 2Yelich homered to left center (378 feet), Contreras scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -121 / SD +113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.1%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -117
- SD +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–22 | Road vs home | 34–269th of 30 |
| 29th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 151710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–55 | 59–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–46 | 19–37 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 40–23 |
| Overs–unders | 50–64–4 | 53–63–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–11 SD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.