Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vaughn singled to right, Lockridge scored, Vaughn to second.3–4
- 4Turang singled to right, Vaughn scored and Yelich scored, Hamilton to third.3–3
- 2Lewis doubled to left, Culpepper scored and Martin scored, Jeffers to third.3–1
- 2Jeffers walked, Keaschall scored, Martin to second, Culpepper to third.1–1
- 1Contreras hit by pitch, Turang scored, Bauers to second, Chourio to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIN +131 / MIL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +86 Elo | MIL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 39–223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–57 | 63–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 42–44 |
| Underdog | 46–28 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–47–9 | 50–63–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–11 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.