Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bell singled to left, Lewis scored.8–6
- 6Lewis doubled to left, Jeffers scored.7–6
- 5Mitchell reached on infield single to shortstop, Turang scored, Chourio to third.6–6
- 5Bauers hit sacrifice fly to left, Hamilton scored.6–5
- 5Culpepper grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Bell scored, Keaschall out at second, Clemens to third.6–4
- 5Keaschall singled to left, Lewis scored, Clemens to second, Bell to third.5–4
- 4Martin doubled to left, Caratini scored, Kreidler thrown out at home.4–4
- 4Culpepper homered to center (390 feet).3–4
- 3Bell homered to left center (406 feet), Jeffers scored.2–4
- 2Turang doubled to right, Hamilton scored and Lara scored.0–4
- 2Yelich scored on error, Hamilton safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lewis, Lara to second.0–2
- 1Chourio homered to center (423 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML MIN +158 / MIL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.3%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -162
- MIN +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +95 Elo | MIL 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 39–213rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15641st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–57 | 63–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 42–43 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 60–47–9 | 49–63–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–11 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.