Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bauers singled to left, Turang scored, Mitchell to third. Minnesota Twins challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–4
- 6Clemens homered to right center (401 feet), Bell scored.3–3
- 5Hamilton doubled to center, Sánchez scored.1–3
- 5Bauers homered to left center (384 feet).1–2
- 5Lee homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 1Chourio homered to right center (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 71%
- ML MIN +238 / MIL -258
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -244
- MIN +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +125 Elo | MIL 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 40–223rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–57 | 63–54 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 42–45 |
| Underdog | 47–28 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–48–9 | 50–64–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–12 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.