San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeLauter scored on throwing error by second baseman Cronenworth and Kwan stole home.1–6
- 7DeLauter scored on throwing error by second baseman Cronenworth and Kwan stole home.1–6
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.1–4
- 5Kwan doubled to right, Halpin scored.1–3
- 2Bailey doubled to center, Genao scored.1–2
- 1Adell doubled to left, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 1Machado grounded into double play, third to second to first, Tatis Jr. scored, Cronenworth out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML SD -101 / CLE -106
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.4%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | SD: Wandy Peralta: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +25 Elo | SD 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 28–3225th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 8th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–60 | 59–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–37 | 19–45 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 55–65–3 | 60–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–2 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.