San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Nathaniel LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe scored on Estrada wild pitch, Genao to second on wild pitch by Estrada.7–5
- 8Lowe scored on Estrada wild pitch, Genao to second on wild pitch by Estrada.7–5
- 7Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to left, Merrill scored.7–4
- 7Campusano doubled to right, France scored, Merrill to third.6–4
- 6Halpin doubled to center, Genao scored.5–4
- 5Campusano doubled to right, Cronenworth scored and Machado scored, France to third.5–3
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left (404 feet).3–3
- 4Bogaerts homered to left center (426 feet), Merrill scored.2–3
- 3Lowe singled to right, Kwan scored, DeLauter to third.0–3
- 3Rocchio homered to right (368 feet).0–2
- 2Lowe homered to left center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML SD +111 / CLE -119
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 48.6%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -115
- SD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 28–3124th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–60 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–37 | 19–44 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 54–65–3 | 59–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–2 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.