Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis RengifoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang doubled to right, Lara scored, Vaughn to third.2–11
- 6Campusano singled to left, Merrill scored on error, Campusano safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Lockridge.1–11
- 6Hays grounded out to third, France scored.1–10
- 6Merrill doubled to right, Machado scored, France to third.1–9
- 5Campusano homered to left center (379 feet), Hays scored.1–8
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to right (382 feet).1–6
- 3Chourio grounded out to shortstop, Hamilton scored, Bae to third.1–5
- 2Rengifo homered to left (366 feet), Campusano scored, Cronenworth scored and Tatis Jr. scored.0–5
- 2Cronenworth doubled to left, Hays scored, Campusano to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -126 / SD +118
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.8%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -122
- SD +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–23 | Road vs home | 35–269th of 30 |
| 29th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 1st of 301562 | Elo rating | 151810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–56 | 60–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–47 | 19–37 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 41–23 |
| Overs–unders | 50–65–4 | 53–64–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–12 SD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.