San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-3, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robert StockPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sheets singled to right, Rengifo scored, Campusano to third.2–4
- 8Young singled to center, Bichette scored, Benge to third.1–4
- 8Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ewing scored, Bichette second, Lindor to second, Lindor safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Song.1–3
- 5Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Bogaerts scored.1–2
- 4Benge homered to left (356 feet), Bichette scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -136 / NYM +126
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SD: Elo 51.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Robert Stock: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 29–3526th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–61 | 59–68 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 55–69–3 | 56–60–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–13 NYM in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.