New York Mets at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peters homered to center (406 feet).1–2
- 9Young singled to center, Benge scored, Robert Jr. to second.1–1
- 8Benintendi doubled to right, Vargas scored, Benintendi to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML NYM -106 / CHW -102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.7%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- CHW +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +9 Elo | CHW 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 38–267th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–69 | 70–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–42 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 34–27 | 58–34 |
| Overs–unders | 58–61–11 | 73–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–3 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.