New York Mets at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler SchweitzerPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torrens homered to right (376 feet), Young scored.10–5
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left (417 feet).8–5
- 6Antonacci reached on infield single to third, Meidroth scored, Peters to third.7–5
- 5B. Montgomery walked, Romo scored, Vargas to second, Antonacci to third.7–4
- 5Semien singled to left, Wagaman scored.7–3
- 5Wagaman singled to center, Young scored, Wagaman to second.6–3
- 5Benge homered to right (403 feet).5–3
- 3Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Romo scored.4–3
- 3Peters homered to right center (366 feet).4–2
- 3Robert Jr. homered to center (405 feet), Benge scored.4–1
- 3Bichette homered to left (378 feet).2–1
- 2B. Montgomery homered to right (419 feet).1–1
- 1Benge singled to left, Ewing scored, Benge to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML NYM -102 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- NYM +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +3 Elo | CHW 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 38–255th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Elo rating | 149913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–69 | 70–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–42 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 33–27 | 58–34 |
| Overs–unders | 57–61–11 | 72–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–3 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.