Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Danny JansenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Peters homered to right (380 feet).7–11
- 6Foscue homered to left (364 feet), Jansen scored.7–10
- 6Jansen doubled to left, Pederson scored.5–10
- 5Vargas singled to center, Antonacci scored.4–10
- 5Antonacci tripled to right, Romo scored.4–9
- 5Duran singled to left, Foscue scored, Langford to third.4–8
- 5Jansen homered to left (399 feet), Freeman scored.3–8
- 4Meidroth singled to center, B. Montgomery scored, C. Montgomery to second.1–8
- 4C. Montgomery singled to center, Antonacci scored, B. Montgomery to third.1–7
- 2Burger homered to center (424 feet).1–6
- 1Doyle singled to center, C. Montgomery scored and Peters scored.0–6
- 1Peters doubled to right, Vargas scored and B. Montgomery scored, C. Montgomery to third.0–4
- 1B. Montgomery singled to left, Murakami scored, Vargas to third.0–2
- 1Vargas singled to left, Antonacci scored on throwing error by left fielder Langford, Vargas to second, Murakami safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -111 / CHW +103
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 46.6%, market 51.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -107
- CHW +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +13 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +24 Elo | CHW 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 39–277th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–75 | 70–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–49 | 12–27 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 58–34 |
| Overs–unders | 63–60–9 | 74–55–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 18–5 CHW in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 23.