Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio homered to left center (380 feet), Pratt scored.8–2
- 6Pratt hit sacrifice fly to left, Ortiz scored.6–2
- 5Morel singled to left, Young scored. Milwaukee Brewers challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–2
- 5Young doubled to center, Robert Jr. scored.5–1
- 5Contreras grounded out to third, Chourio scored, Lara to second.5–0
- 2Chourio homered to right center (389 feet), Hamilton scored.4–0
- 1Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lara scored, Vaughn out at second.2–0
- 1Vaughn singled to right, Chourio scored, Lara to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 65%
- ML MIL -198 / NYM +184
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.8%, market 65.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -189
- NYM +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 2.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −7 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +76 Elo | MIL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–27 | Road vs home | 31–3626th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–63 | 63–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 47–53 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 36–28 |
| Overs–unders | 57–72–4 | 59–63–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 19–8 NYM in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.