Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Pratt hit sacrifice fly to left, Ortiz scored, Lara to second.1–4
- 3Bauers homered to center (413 feet), Contreras scored.1–3
- 3Contreras singled to left, Pratt scored.1–1
- 1Harris II doubled to left, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML ATL +142 / MIL -153
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.4%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -146
- ATL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +13 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +74 Elo | MIL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 44–231st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–56 | 68–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–45 | 45–51 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 59–64–6 | 56–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–11 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.