Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pages homered to left (382 feet).6–2
- 9Hamilton grounded into fielder's choice to second, Chourio scored on error and Lara scored on fielding error by second baseman Edman, Hamilton second, Bauers safe at third on error.6–1
- 7Vaughn singled to left, Bauers scored.4–1
- 7Bauers doubled to center, Chourio scored.3–1
- 5Bauers singled to right, Chourio scored.2–1
- 4Muncy homered to right (370 feet).1–1
- 2Lara grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lockridge scored, Contreras safe at second on error by second baseman Edman, Ornelas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML MIL +169 / LAD -182
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.7%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -174
- MIL +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +5 Elo | LAD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 4th of 3035–26 | Road vs home | 37–256th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 1st of 301559 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–59 | 55–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 43–49 | 48–66 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 52–68–4 | 56–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 13–16 LAD in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.
- Aug 15MIL 4 @ LAD 1Picked MIL 54%Hit
- Aug 14MIL 1 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 13MIL 5 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 57%Miss
- May 24LAD 5 @ MIL 1Picked LAD 57%Hit
- May 23LAD 11 @ MIL 3Picked LAD 51%Hit
- May 22LAD 1 @ MIL 5Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Oct 17MIL 1 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 16MIL 1 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit