Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Edman homered to center (408 feet).1–3
- 5Pages homered to left (367 feet).1–2
- 5Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Lara scored.1–1
- 1Betts singled to left, Pages scored, T. Hernández to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML MIL +161 / LAD -173
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- MIL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +16 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +37 Elo | LAD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–25 | Road vs home | 36–246th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 1st of 301558 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–58 | 54–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 42–49 | 47–66 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–66–4 | 56–64–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–15 LAD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.
- Aug 13MIL 5 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 57%Miss
- May 24LAD 5 @ MIL 1Picked LAD 57%Hit
- May 23LAD 11 @ MIL 3Picked LAD 51%Hit
- May 22LAD 1 @ MIL 5Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Oct 17MIL 1 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 16MIL 1 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- Oct 14LAD 5 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 13LAD 2 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 59%Hit