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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Brewers.TV

Away

Brewers

75-47

5–4

at

Home

Dodgers

73-49

MIL 43%LAD 57%

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Dodger Stadium · MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Brewers.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%MILStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Joey OrtizBatting2-3, 1 RBI
  • Shane DrohanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers
  • Max MuncyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Roki SasakiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Bauers singled to right, Chourio scored, Mitchell to third.5–4
  • 9Mitchell singled to right, Hamilton scored, Chourio to second.4–4
  • 9Chourio singled to right, Ortiz scored, Hamilton to third.3–4
  • 6Muncy homered to right center (426 feet), Edman and Freeman scored.2–4
  • 5Rortvedt singled to left, Rojas scored.2–1
  • 4Hamilton walked, Vaughn scored, Ortiz to second, Yelich to third.2–0
  • 4Ortiz walked, Sánchez scored, Yelich to second, Vaughn to third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 57%

LeanMiss
MIL 43%LAD 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 57%
ML MIL +131 / LAD -140
Pre-line forecast
LAD 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 54%
Ratings vs. market
−3.4 pts
LAD: Elo 54.0%, market 57.4%
Fair odds
LAD -135
MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 3.7 – 4.3 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILLADWhy
Team rating15571558Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−10−1MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +28 EloLAD 54.0%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 55.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 55.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 57.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatLAD
5th of 304.9Runs scored5.04th of 30
3rd of 303.8Runs allowed3.85th of 30
2nd of 30+1.1Margin+1.21st of 30
11th of 305–5Last 104–620th of 30
5th of 3033–25Road vs home36–234th of 30
27th of 301496Opponent Elo149528th of 30
2nd of 301557Elo rating15581st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersDodgers
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILLAD
Run line63–5854–67
Last 103–72–8
Favorite42–4947–65
Underdog21–97–2
Overs–unders51–66–455–64–2
Overs–unders, last 102–7–15–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 11–15 LAD in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.