Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Contreras homered to left center (389 feet), Bauers scored.4–1
- 3Ohtani tripled to right, Call scored.2–1
- 2Ortiz homered to left (373 feet), Contreras scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -122 / LAD +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 49.7%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- LAD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 3.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −6 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 5th of 3034–26 | Road vs home | 37–244th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–59 | 55–68 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 42–49 | 48–66 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–67–4 | 56–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–16 LAD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.
- Aug 14MIL 1 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 13MIL 5 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 57%Miss
- May 24LAD 5 @ MIL 1Picked LAD 57%Hit
- May 23LAD 11 @ MIL 3Picked LAD 51%Hit
- May 22LAD 1 @ MIL 5Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Oct 17MIL 1 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 16MIL 1 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- Oct 14LAD 5 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Hit