Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-5, 1 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lee singled to center, Clemens scored, Kreidler to second.4–6
- 7Clemens singled to right, Bell scored.4–5
- 6Thomas scored on a balk, Dubón to second on a balk.4–4
- 6Thomas scored on a balk, Dubón to second on a balk.4–4
- 6Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Harris II scored, Thomas to second.3–4
- 6Thomas singled to right, Olson scored, Harris II to third.2–4
- 5Clemens doubled to right, Keaschall scored and Buxton scored, Bell to third.1–4
- 5Bell walked, Culpepper scored, Buxton to second, Keaschall to third.1–2
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to left, Riley scored, Jarvis to third.1–1
- 3Buxton grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caratini scored, Keaschall to second, Culpepper to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -108 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.2%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +30 Elo | ATL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 34–3013th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–55 | 66–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–44 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 50–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–62–6 | 65–52–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–2 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.