Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kim grounded out to third, Olson scored.10–3
- 9Vargas homered to left center (403 feet), Moreno scored and Arenado scored.10–2
- 7Arenado homered to left (387 feet).7–2
- 3Arenado homered to left (389 feet), Moreno scored.6–2
- 3Moreno doubled to right, Carroll scored.4–2
- 2Waldschmidt singled to right, Tawa scored.3–2
- 2Tawa singled to left, Kepler scored.2–2
- 2Arenado grounded out to third, Moreno scored.1–2
- 1Harris II grounded out to second, Baldwin scored, Olson to second.0–2
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to center (429 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ARI +123 / ATL -133
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.3%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -127
- ARI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 41–222nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–55 | 70–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 43–41 |
| Underdog | 48–22 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 49–66–8 | 57–59–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–12 ATL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.