Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll homered to left center (390 feet).6–4
- 7Vargas walked, Marte scored, Arenado to second, Nootbaar to third.6–3
- 5Moreno doubled to left, Perdomo scored.6–2
- 4Veen homered to right center (407 feet), Castro scored.6–1
- 2B. Sullivan homered to right (402 feet), Moniak scored and Castro scored.4–1
- 2Castro singled to center, Goodman scored, Moniak to second.1–1
- 1Marte singled to right, Carroll scored, Moreno to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML COL +157 / ARI -168
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 66.9%, market 61.7%
- Fair odds
- ARI -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +122 Elo | ARI 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–41 | Road vs home | 35–258th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 30th of 301413 | Elo rating | 151411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–58 | 67–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 57–53 | 47–22 |
| Overs–unders | 57–59–4 | 48–65–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–33 ARI in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.