Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moniak hit sacrifice fly to left, Goodman scored.3–2
- 6Karros homered to left center (413 feet), Tovar scored.2–2
- 1Marte homered to right center (377 feet).0–2
- 1Carroll homered to right center (422 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML COL +153 / ARI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.8%, market 61.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -158
- COL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +5 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +106 Elo | ARI 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3019–41 | Road vs home | 35–247th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–58 | 67–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 56–53 | 47–22 |
| Overs–unders | 57–58–4 | 48–64–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 14–33 ARI in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 47.