Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting2-3
- Gabriel HughesPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno doubled to left, Barrosa scored.0–9
- 8Barrosa singled to left, Waldschmidt scored.0–8
- 2Marte singled to right, Carroll scored, Moreno to third.0–7
- 2Perdomo scored on Hughes wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Hughes.0–6
- 2Perdomo scored on Hughes wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Hughes.0–6
- 2Carroll doubled to right, Waldschmidt scored, Perdomo to third.0–5
- 1Arenado homered to left (382 feet), Moreno scored, Marte scored and Nootbaar scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 67%
- ML COL +194 / ARI -209
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 66.5%, market 66.5%
- Fair odds
- ARI -199
- COL +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +119 Elo | ARI 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 66.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 30th of 3019–40 | Road vs home | 34–248th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 30th of 301414 | Elo rating | 151311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–57 | 66–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 56–52 | 47–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–58–4 | 47–64–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 14–32 ARI in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 46.