Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tawa homered to center (406 feet).2–0
- 1Moreno grounded out to first, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 65%
- ML ARI +177 / ATL -191
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -182
- ARI +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +17 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 41–212nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15386th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–55 | 70–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 43–40 |
| Underdog | 47–22 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 49–65–8 | 57–58–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–12 ATL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.