Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jeffers doubled to center, Buxton scored and Culpepper scored.1–4
- 6Baldwin homered to left center (383 feet).1–2
- 1Bell homered to right center (434 feet), Jeffers scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ATL -147 / MIN +137
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.2%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -141
- MIN +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +36 Elo | ATL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 33–3014th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–54 | 65–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–43 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 49–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–61–6 | 65–51–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–1 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.