Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras homered to right (378 feet).5–7
- 5Lewis doubled to left, Roden scored.4–7
- 5Larnach grounded out to first, Caratini scored, Roden to third.4–6
- 3Roden doubled to right, Lee scored, Caratini to third.4–5
- 3Caratini singled to center, Clemens scored, Lee to second.4–4
- 3Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to center, Bell scored.4–3
- 3Clemens singled to right, Lewis scored, Bell to second.4–2
- 3Beavers homered to right (374 feet), Alonso scored and O'Neill scored.4–1
- 1Bell singled to right, Larnach scored.1–1
- 1Holliday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Henderson scored, Alonso out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML BAL -105 / MIN -103
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.7%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -101
- MIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +9 Elo | MIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 31–2814th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–59 | 63–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 15–30 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 59–56–5 | 62–49–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–10 MIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.