Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Lee doubled to right, Jeffers scored, Bell to third.5–2
- 3Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (460 feet).5–1
- 2Roden grounded out to second, Lewis scored, Keaschall to second, Lee to third.4–1
- 2Henderson homered to right (409 feet), Pozo scored.4–0
- 1Alonso homered to left center (418 feet), Henderson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML BAL +102 / MIN -109
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.5%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +4 Elo | MIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 31–2712th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–59 | 63–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 59–55–5 | 62–48–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–10 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.