Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to left, Bohm scored.9–1
- 6Lewis doubled to left, Jeffers scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.8–1
- 5Stott homered to right (350 feet), Bohm scored and Sosa scored.8–0
- 5Sosa singled to left, Arraez scored and Harper scored, Bohm to second.5–0
- 5Bohm singled to center, Turner scored, Arraez to second, Harper to third.3–0
- 5Arraez walked, Realmuto scored, Harper to second, Turner to third.2–0
- 2Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored, Bohm to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PHI -133 / MIN +123
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.4%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- MIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 32–2812th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–71 | 64–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 37–53 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 53–62–8 | 63–50–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.