Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marsh homered to right (365 feet), Bohm scored.7–1
- 4Harper singled to center, Turner scored.5–1
- 4Schwarber homered to right (355 feet), Marsh scored.4–1
- 2Keaschall homered to left (357 feet).2–1
- 1Stott singled to center, Harper scored, Arraez to second.2–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML PHI -104 / MIN -104
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +8 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–71 | 64–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 37–53 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 53–61–8 | 63–49–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.