Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-4, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to left, Riley scored and Baldwin scored.2–4
- 1Clemens singled to right, Bell scored, Lewis to second.0–4
- 1Lewis singled to center, Jeffers scored, Bell to third.0–3
- 1Bell hit a ground rule double, Keaschall scored and Buxton scored, Jeffers to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ATL -131 / MIN +122
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.8%, market 55.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +34 Elo | ATL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 32–3014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 147524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–53 | 64–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–42 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 48–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–60–6 | 65–50–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–0 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.