Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz singled to right, Bohm scored and Hill scored, Marsh to second.7–5
- 8Bohm singled to right, Harper scored on error, Bohm safe at second on fielding error by first baseman Lewis, Hill safe at third on error.5–5
- 6Bohm homered to left (408 feet), Stott scored and Harper scored.4–5
- 6Arraez grounded out to second, Schwarber scored, Harper to second, Stott to third.1–5
- 3Clemens homered to right (400 feet).0–5
- 1Lee homered to right (353 feet), Bell scored, Clemens scored and Lewis scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -108 / MIN +101
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | −2 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–28 | Road vs home | 32–2913th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–71 | 64–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 38–53 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 54–62–8 | 64–50–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.